Lecture 2: p-adic Hodge-theoretic obstructions
Edgar Costa (MIT)
ICERM: Arithmetic, Geometry and Computations on K3 surfaces
September 16, 2026
Supported by the Simons Foundation
Slides available at edgarcosta.org
$$\rho(X_p^{\mathrm{al}})\geq\begin{cases}\rho(X^{\mathrm{al}})&\text{if }E\text{ is CM or }m\text{ is even,}\\\rho(X^{\mathrm{al}})+d&\text{if }E\text{ is totally real and }m\text{ is odd,}\end{cases}$$
Equality occurs infinitely often (density $1$ after some finite extension).
If $E$ is totally real and $m$ is odd, infinitely many good ordinary prime pairs $(p,q)$ satisfy $\rho(X_p^{\mathrm{al}})=\rho(X_q^{\mathrm{al}})=\rho(X^{\mathrm{al}})+d$ and
$$\operatorname{disc}\operatorname{Pic}(X_p^{\mathrm{al}})\not\equiv\operatorname{disc}\operatorname{Pic}(X_q^{\mathrm{al}})\bmod(\Bbb{Q}^{\times})^2$$
Jumping is frequent; extra endomorphisms complicate the Kloosterman-van Luijk approach.
It is very hard to prove RM!
We are now not only asking to find algebraic cycles in $X$ but also in $X \times X$.
$X_p/\mathbf{F}_q$ a K3 surface; $q=p^n$, $\ell\nmid q$.
$$P_2(t) := \det(t - \operatorname{Frob}_q \mid H^2_{\mathrm{et}}(X_p^{\mathrm{al}}, \mathbf{Q}_\ell)) \in \mathbf{Z}[t].$$
$$\operatorname{Pic}(X_p)_{\mathbf{Q}_\ell} = \ker\left( \operatorname{Frob}_q - q \cdot \operatorname{id} \mid H^2_{\mathrm{et}}(X_p^{\mathrm{al}}, \mathbf{Q}_\ell)\right)$$
Tate conjecture is known for K3 surfaces over finite fields.
Since $\operatorname{Frob}_q$ acts semisimply, we have:
$$\rho\bigl(X_{p,\mathbf{F}_{q^m}}\bigr) = \sum_{\zeta^m=1} \operatorname{ord}_{t=q\zeta} P_2(t).$$
$$\rho(X_p^{\mathrm{al}}) = \sum_{\zeta} \operatorname{ord}_{t=q\zeta} P_2(t),$$
where $\zeta$ runs over all roots of unity.
Note: $\rho(X_p^{\mathrm{al}}) \equiv 0 \bmod 2$
$$\det(1 - t\operatorname{Frob}_q \mid H^2_{\mathrm{et}}(X_p^{\mathrm{al}}, \mathbf{Q}_\ell)) = t^{22}P_2(1/t).$$
The Hasse-Weil zeta function $Z_{X_p}(t)$ can be written as
$$Z_{X_p}(t) := \exp\left( \sum_{m=1}^{\infty} \frac{\# X_p(\mathbf{F}_{q^m})}{m} t^m \right) = \frac{1}{(1-t)\, t^{22}P_2(1/t)\, (1-q^2 t)}.$$
One may deduce $P_2$ from the point counts $\# X_p(\mathbf{F}_{q^m})$ for $m \leq b_2/2 + 1 = 12$.
In this lecture we will focus on projective hypersurfaces, with quartic K3s in mind, but the methods are more generic, as at some point we will need to do explicit computations.
Take $f \in \mathbf{Z}[x,y,z,w]$ and $X := Z(f) \subset \mathbf{P}^3_{\mathbf{Z}}$.
We may consider the surface $X_p := Z(f \bmod p) \subset \mathbf{P}^3(\mathbf{F}_p)$.
Yesterday, we mostly counted classes, but we also saw the cokernel theorem.
If $X$ and $X_p$ are smooth then the specialization map is injective
$$\operatorname{Pic}(X_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) \hookrightarrow \operatorname{Pic}(X_p^{\mathrm{al}})$$
and $\rho(X_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) = \rho(X_{\mathbf{Q}_p^{\mathrm{al}}}) \leq \rho(X_p^{\mathrm{al}})$.
$$\operatorname{Pic}(X_{\mathbf{Q}_p^{\mathrm{al}}}) = \operatorname{Pic}(X_{\mathbf{C}}) = \operatorname{Pic}(X_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}})$$
The specialization map has torsion-free cokernel for $p \neq 2$.
Can we use it without computing $\operatorname{Pic}(X_p^{\mathrm{al}})$?
Goal
For a given $f$ and $p$, improve the inequality $\rho(X_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) \leq \rho(X_p^{\mathrm{al}})$.
Which classes in $\operatorname{Pic}(X_p^{\mathrm{al}})$ actually come from $X$?
We will do this by considering the thickenings
$$Z(f \bmod p^i) \subset \mathbf{P}^3_{\mathbf{Z}/(p)^i} \quad i = 1, 2, \ldots$$
Not "which prime" but "which classes": lifting, not counting.
Choose a finite extension $K/\mathbf{Q}_p$, with residue field $k=\mathbf{F}_{p^m}$, so $\rho(X_{K})=\rho(X^{\mathrm{al}})$ and $\rho(X_{p,k})=\rho(X_p^{\mathrm{al}})$.
Over characteristic zero we have:
Over characteristic $p$ we have:
Let $C \in \operatorname{Pic}(X_p^{\mathrm{al}})_{\mathbf{Q}}$.
Classes on $X_p^{\mathrm{al}}$ need not lie in $F^1_{K}$.
Classes from characteristic zero must lie in $F^1_{K}$.
Theorem: $C \text{ lifts to } X^{\mathrm{al}} \Longleftrightarrow C \in F^1_{K}$.
$A = \operatorname{Jac}(y^2 = 4x^5 - 36x^4 + 56x^3 - 76x^2 + 44x - 23)$
$\operatorname{Frob}|_{H^1_{\mathrm{dR}}(A/\mathbf{Q}_p)} \equiv \begin{pmatrix} 31 \cdot 641 & 31 \cdot 241 & 10329 & 3977 \\ 31 \cdot 341 & 31 \cdot 472 & 9352 & 7800 \\ 31 \cdot 844 & 31 \cdot 515 & 4736 & 895 \\ 31 \cdot 811 & 31 \cdot 404 & 13706 & 20333 \end{pmatrix} \pmod{31^3},$
From this we deduce $\operatorname{Frob}|_{H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(A/\mathbf{Q}_p)}$ and
$\det(t - 31^{-1}\operatorname{Frob} \mid H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(A/\mathbf{Q}_p)) = (t-1)^2(31t^4 - 6t^3 + 26t^2 - 6t + 31)/31$
Thus, $\rho\bigl(A_{\mathbf{F}_p^{\mathrm{al}}}\bigr) = 2$.
Since the basis of $H^1$ respects the Hodge filtration, the induced basis in $H^2$ will also respect it.
SageMath package: crystalline_obstruction.
$A = \operatorname{Jac}(y^2 = 4x^5 - 36x^4 + 56x^3 - 76x^2 + 44x - 23)$
$\det(t - 31^{-1}\operatorname{Frob} \mid H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(A/\mathbf{Q}_p)) = (t-1)^2(31t^4 - 6t^3 + 26t^2 - 6t + 31)/31$
Thus, $\rho\bigl(A_{\mathbf{F}_p^{\mathrm{al}}}\bigr) = 2$.
Compute 2 eigenvectors
$\begin{aligned} v_1 \equiv{}& \left(0,\,839,\,568,\,649,\,1,\,372\right) \pmod{31^2} \\ v_2 \equiv{}& \left(1,\,136,\,618,\,206,\,0,\,0\right) \pmod{31^2}. \end{aligned}$
The last coordinate of the vectors above gives the projection to $H^2/F^1$.
Therefore, $v_1 \notin F^1$ and the corresponding algebraic cycle cannot lift to $\mathbf{Q}_p$.
Thus, we improved $\operatorname{rank} \operatorname{NS}(A_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) \leq 2$ to $\operatorname{rank} \operatorname{NS}(A_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) \leq 1$, and therefore $\operatorname{End}(A_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) = \mathbf{Z}$.
van Luijk's method would have succeeded in this example by using a second prime.
Via the isomorphism $H^2_{\mathrm{crys}}(X_p/\mathbf{Z}_p) \otimes \mathbf{Q}_p \simeq H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(X/\mathbf{Q})$, we have
$$\operatorname{Frob}_p : H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(X/\mathbf{Q}_p) \rightarrow H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(X/\mathbf{Q}_p).$$
Compute a $p$-adic approximation of the obstruction map
$\pi : \ker(\operatorname{Frob}_p^m-p^m\operatorname{id}\mid H) \subset H \longrightarrow H/F^1$
If $\pi(C) \neq 0$, then $C \notin \operatorname{sp}\bigl(\operatorname{Pic}(X^{\mathrm{al}})_{\mathbf{Q}}\bigr)$. (cf. $\operatorname{Pic}(X_{\mathbf{C}}) = H^{1,1}(X_{\mathbf{C}}) \cap H^2(X, \mathbf{Z})$)
By picking a basis that respects the Hodge filtration, the map $H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(X/\mathbf{Q}_p) \rightarrow H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(X/\mathbf{Q}_p)/F^1_{\mathbf{Q}_p}$ is a coordinate projection;
$\pi_{\mathbf{Q}_p}=\pi$ is its restriction to $\ker(\operatorname{Frob}_p^m-p^m\operatorname{id}\mid H)$.
Raising $N$ can only remove more. It never puts a dimension back.
$X := Z(y^4 - x^3 z + y z^3 + z w^3 + w^4) \subset \mathbf{P}^3_{\mathbf{Q}}$
$p=89,\quad N=3,\quad F=89^{-1}\operatorname{Frob}_{89}$
| factor of $p^{-1}\operatorname{Frob}_p$ | dimension | liftable dimension, at most |
|---|---|---|
| $t-1$ | $1$ | $1$ |
| $(t-1)^4$ | $4$ | $3$ |
| $t+1$ | $1$ | $0$ |
| $t^4+1$ | $4$ | $0$ |
The $+1$-eigenspace splits into the polarization (lifts) and its primitive part (obstructed); the $-1$-eigenspace and primitive eighth-root piece $\ker(F^4+1)$ are obstructed.
$\rho(X_{89}^{\mathrm{al}})=5+1+4=10,\qquad \rho(X_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}})\leq (1+3)+0+0=4$
In fact, $\rho(X_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) = 4$ as there are four lines in $z = 0$.
previous approaches would not have used $p = 89$
at $p = 89$ the obstruction improves 10 to 4, and 4 is sharp; Does this always work?
$X = Z(y^4 - x^3 z + y z^3 + z w^3 + w^4) \subset \mathbf{P}^3_{\mathbf{C}}$
$p=31,\quad N=5$
| factor of $p^{-1}\operatorname{Frob}_p$ | dimension | liftable dimension, at most |
|---|---|---|
| $t-1$ | $1$ | $1$ |
| $t-1$ | $1$ | $1$ |
| $(t+1)^2$ | $2$ | $2$ |
$\rho(X_{31}^{\mathrm{al}}) = 4$
no cycle obstruction found while working $\mathbf{Z}/(p)^5$
by searching for lines Elsenhans-Jahnel's method would have succeeded in this example
at $p = 31$ the reduction bound is already the sharp value 4, so there is nothing left to remove;
$X := Z(9 x y^{4} + 3 x^{4} z + 9 y^{2} z^{3} + z^{5} + 5 w^{5}) \subset \mathbf{P}^3$
$p=23,\quad N=6$
| factor of $p^{-1}\operatorname{Frob}_p$ | dimension | liftable dimension, at most |
|---|---|---|
| $t-1$ | $1$ | $1$ |
| $t-1$ | $1$ | $0$ |
| $t+1$ | $1$ | $0$ |
| $t^2+1$ | $2$ | $0$ |
$p=29,\quad N=20$
| factor of $p^{-1}\operatorname{Frob}_p$ | dimension | liftable dimension, at most |
|---|---|---|
| $t-1$ | $1$ | $1$ |
| $(t-1)^2$ | $2$ | $1$ |
| $(t+1)^2$ | $2$ | $1$ |
At $p = 29$: $5 \to 3$, but no further at any precision.
The involution permits only one condition per $2$-dimensional primitive Frobenius eigenspace.
Three outcomes, and they are different in kind:
Only the third is a statement about the method rather than about an attempt.
The difficulty is proving that some prime works, not finding one.
Does this always work?
No.
Is there a prime for which the bound will be tight?
Can we combine both approaches?
Raising $N$ does not touch the missing rational structure.
We would also love to combine this with methods over $\mathbf{C}$.
$X : w^2 = (-y^2/8 + yz - z^2)(7x^2/8 + 5xz + 7z^2)(2x^2 + 3xy + y^2)$
Given an approximation to $\operatorname{Frob}_p$ we will obstruct 2 extra cycles.
We don't yet know how to compute such approximation!
Is there a prime for which the bound will be tight?
Is there always a sharp prime over $\mathbf{Q}$?
What conditions on RM would we need for this not to fail?