Where we got to yesterday
Reduction gives
$$\rho(X_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) \leq \rho(\overline{X}_p) \quad \text{for every good } p.$$
Jumping is frequent : a non-trivial jump character makes a density-one-half set of primes overshoot.
Forced excess is different : every good prime overshoots. Exactly two cases:
$E_X = \mathbf{Q}$, $\dim T_X$ odd: forced excess $\eta = 1$, van Luijk survives;
$E_X$ totally real, $E_X \neq \mathbf{Q}$, $\dim_{E_X} T_X$ odd: excess $[E_X:\mathbf{Q}] \geq 2$, a wall.
Only the second defeats the unaugmented two-prime argument.
NEW SLIDE: newly written, not reused from an existing talk.
What it does. Re-enters after the break, and re-draws the one distinction the whole lecture rests on: a prime that overshoots is a nuisance, a surface where every prime overshoots is a wall.
As on Lecture 1 slide 24: a totally real E_X of odd degree at least 3 with dim_{E_X} T_X odd also has odd geometric rank, and its excess is already at least 3, so odd rank by itself does not put you in the survivable case.
SECTION 2.1, From reduction to a lifting problem. Four slides. Pose the geometric question before any cohomological test, and re-enter after the break without assuming momentum.
THE CEILING SET FOR THIS LECTURE: Berthelot-Ogus-Raynaud is quoted and used, not unpacked. What stays defined is what the method computes with: the filtration F^1, Frobenius on H^2_dR, and the projection into H^2/F^1. Every slide is written to that level.
Spoken: and Lecture 1 closed by separating two things.
Spoken: so half your primes are wasted, but the bound is still attainable at the others.
Spoken: there are exactly two cases in which every good prime overshoots.
Spoken: Odd geometric rank alone is not the first case.
Spoken: Every good prime overshoots in both; only the second defeats the unaugmented two-prime argument.
TRANSCRIBED FROM: no source, restyled
Picard lattice, over finite fields
Tate conjecture
$$\operatorname{Pic}(X_{\mathbf{F}_p})_{\mathbf{Q}_\ell} = \ker\left( \operatorname{Frob}_p - p \cdot \operatorname{id} \mid H^2_{\mathrm{et}}(\overline{X}_p, \mathbf{Q}_\ell)\right)$$
Tate conjecture is known for $d \leq 4$ over finite fields.
The Hasse-Weil zeta function $Z_X(t)$ for a surface $X$ can be written as
$$Z_X(t) := \exp\left( \sum_{m=1}^{\infty} \frac{\# X(\mathbf{F}_{p^m})}{m} t^m \right) = \frac{1}{(1-t)\, \chi(t)\, (1-p^2 t)},$$
where $\chi(t) := \det(1 - t \operatorname{Frob} \mid H^2_{\mathrm{et}}(\overline{X}_p, \mathbf{Q}_\ell)) \in \mathbf{Z}[t]$. One may deduce $\chi$ by naively computing $\# X(\mathbf{F}_{p^m})$ for $m \leq b_2/2 + 1$.
Since $\operatorname{Frob}_p$ acts semisimply, we have:
$$\rho\bigl(X_{\mathbf{F}_{p^n}}\bigr) = \#\{ z : \chi(1/z) = 0 \text{ and } z^n = p^n \}.$$
Note: $\rho(\overline{X}_p) \equiv b_2 \bmod 2$
For $p > 7$ computing $\chi(t)$ by naive point counting is not practical. Instead, one relies in a infrastructure of methods in crystalline cohomology [Abbott-Kedlaya-Roe, C, C-Harvey-Kedlaya, Tuitman-Pancratz]
SOURCE: O:L1108-1142
Compressed from Lecture 1, where it was stated properly.
NOTATION: P_2(T) is the H^2 characteristic polynomial, the name Lecture 1 standardises on. A source slide that calls it chi(t) means the same object.
PANEL FLAG: the frame writes chi(t) = det(1 - t Frob | H^2), which is the reciprocal of the deck's P_2(T) = det(T - Frob | H^2), not literally the same polynomial. The frame's chi(t) is kept here because the zeta function line needs that normalisation; if the course is to use one name throughout, the author should say which.
Spoken: Reminder only.
Spoken: The Tate conjecture is a theorem for K3 surfaces over finite fields, so, with P_2(T) = det(T - Frob | H^2) as in Lecture 1,
Spoken: rho(X_p bar) = #{roots of P_2(pT) that are roots of unity, with multiplicity} = sum_i deg Phi_i,
Spoken: the sum of the degrees of the cyclotomic factors Phi_i of the normalised polynomial, not the number of them.
Spoken: Slide 14: four factors, rank 10.
TRANSCRIBED FROM: frobenious-dist/nyc-jnts.tex:1108-1142
Reduction to finite characteristic
Take $f \in \mathbf{Z}[x,y,z,w]$ and $X := Z(f) \subset \mathbf{P}^3_{\mathbf{Z}}$.
We may consider the surface $X_{\mathbf{F}_p} := Z(f \bmod p) \subset \mathbf{P}^3(\mathbf{F}_p)$.
Theorem
If $X$ and $X_{\mathbf{F}_p}$ are smooth then $\rho(X_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) = \rho(X_{\mathbf{Q}_p^{\mathrm{al}}}) \leq \rho(\overline{X}_p)$.
Goal
For a given $f$ and $p$, improve the inequality above.
Idea, try to lift algebraic cycles (curves) from $\mathbf{F}_p^{\mathrm{al}}$ to $\mathbf{Q}_p^{\mathrm{al}}$.
We will do this by considering the thickenings
$$Z(f \bmod p^i) \subset \mathbf{P}^3_{\mathbf{Z}/(p)^i} \quad i = 1, 2, \ldots$$
SOURCE: O:L1205-1222
Spoken: The middle equality is the one to notice. It says nothing is lost by working p-adically rather than over Q, which is what makes a p-adic obstruction a legitimate tool rather than a weaker substitute.
Spoken: Then the geometric device: a divisor class on the special fibre lifts, or fails to, through the thickenings Z(f mod p^i).
TRANSCRIBED FROM: frobenious-dist/nyc-jnts.tex:1205-1222
The lifting question
Which classes in $\operatorname{Pic}(\overline{X}_p)$ actually come from $X$?
Every excess counted yesterday is a class that exists in the special fibre and has no ancestor upstairs.
Reduction ranks cannot see the difference: they count the special fibre and nothing else.
Not "which prime" but "which classes": lifting, not counting.
NEW SLIDE: newly written, not reused from an existing talk.
What it does. Turns yesterday's dead end into today's question. Without it the cohomology in slide 5 arrives unmotivated.
Spoken: Reduction ranks cannot see the difference, because they count the special fibre and nothing else.
Spoken: So the question is not "which prime" but "which classes", and it is a question about lifting rather than about counting.
TRANSCRIBED FROM: no source, restyled
1st ingredient: cohomology
For simplicity, assume that all curve classes are defined over the base field, i.e.,
$$\rho(X) = \rho(X_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) \quad \text{and} \quad \rho(X_{\mathbf{F}_p}) = \rho(\overline{X}_p)$$
Over characteristic zero we have:
$H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(X/\mathbf{Q}) = F^0 \supset F^1 \supset F^2$, the Hodge filtration
$\operatorname{Pic}(X) \hookrightarrow F^1(X)$
For $d = 4$, $\dim F^i(X) = 22, 21, 1$.
Over characteristic $p$ we have:
$\operatorname{Pic}(X_{\mathbf{F}_p}) \hookrightarrow H^2_{\mathrm{crys}}(X_{\mathbf{F}_p}/\mathbf{Z}_p) \otimes \mathbf{Q}_p \simeq H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(X/\mathbf{Q}) \otimes_{\mathbf{Q}} \mathbf{Q}_p = F^0_{\mathbf{Q}_p} \supset F^1_{\mathbf{Q}_p} \supset F^2_{\mathbf{Q}_p}$
SOURCE: O:L1224-1243
SECTION 2.2, The obstruction. Sixteen slides. Five ingredients, two worked calculations, three examples that succeed, stall and fail in turn, and the question those three raise.
Spoken: The Hodge filtration, introduced here rather than in Lecture 1, because this is the first place it does any work.
Spoken: For a K3 surface the graded pieces have dimensions 1, 20, 1, and F^1 is the part of codimension one, cut out by the holomorphic two-form.
TRANSCRIBED FROM: frobenious-dist/nyc-jnts.tex:1224-1239 (the theorem block at 1240-1242 of the same frame is deck slide 6)
Berthelot-Ogus-Raynaud
Theorem (Berthelot-Ogus, F-isocrystals and de Rham cohomology I , Invent. Math. 1983, §3; Raynaud 1979)
$$\operatorname{Pic}(X)_{\mathbf{Q}} = \operatorname{Pic}(X_{\mathbf{F}_p})_{\mathbf{Q}} \cap F^1_{\mathbf{Q}_p}$$
Geometric version , the one used below: replace the $p$-eigenspace by the span of the eigenspaces for all eigenvalues $\zeta p$, $\zeta$ a root of unity, i.e. all cyclotomic factors of $P_2(pT)$, and read the equality after the finite extension over which the classes are defined.
SOURCE: O:L1240-1242
What it does. The room should leave knowing this statement and not its proof. It is the only thing black-boxed in the lecture.
PANEL FLAG: what the "Raynaud 1979" half of this attribution supplies could not be established from the source or the surrounding files. The lifting criterion itself is Berthelot-Ogus 1983, section 3 (the 1978 reference is their book, not the criterion), and that has been corrected here. The Raynaud citation is carried over from the source deck unchanged, pending the author saying what it is for.
EDITORIAL: the "Geometric version" paragraph is not on the frame (nyc-jnts.tex:1240-1242 is the theorem block only); it states the form of the criterion the K3 examples use.
Spoken: For classes defined over Q_p and over F_p.
Spoken: Quoted, not unpacked: a class in the special fibre comes from characteristic zero exactly when it lies in the filtration step.
Spoken: The K3 examples use eigenvalues -p and zeta_8 p, so they need the geometric version; and local liftability alone is not descent, so the hypothesis that the classes are defined over the base fields is part of the statement.
Spoken: Everything that follows is the work of making both sides of that intersection computable.
TRANSCRIBED FROM: frobenious-dist/nyc-jnts.tex:1240-1242
What Frobenius acts on
Via the isomorphism $H^2_{\mathrm{crys}}(X_{\mathbf{F}_p}/\mathbf{Z}_p) \otimes \mathbf{Q}_p \simeq H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(X/\mathbf{Q})$, we have
$$\operatorname{Frob}_p : H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(X/\mathbf{Q}_p) \rightarrow H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(X/\mathbf{Q}_p).$$
SOURCE: O:L1245-1247, split
What it does. Answers the obvious objection before it is raised. First of the four slides split out of the old dense one.
Spoken: Frobenius lives in characteristic p and the filtration lives in characteristic zero, so they need a common home. The comparison supplies it.
Spoken: and transporting Frobenius across gives Frob_p acting on H^2_dR(X/Q_p), where F^1 also lives.
TRANSCRIBED FROM: frobenious-dist/nyc-jnts.tex:1245-1247
Tate over a finite field
Tate conjecture
$\operatorname{Pic}(X_{\mathbf{F}_p})_{\mathbf{Q}_p} = \ker\!\left( \operatorname{Frob}_p - p \cdot \operatorname{id} \ \big| \ H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(X/\mathbf{Q}_p) \right)$
SOURCE: O:L1249-1251, split
m is any exponent divisible by the orders of the relevant roots of unity; the eventual Tate space is what is meant by "the geometric one".
Spoken: Over the base field, $\operatorname{Pic}(X_{\mathbf{F}_p})_{\mathbf{Q}_p} = \ker( \operatorname{Frob}_p - p \cdot \mathrm{id} \mid H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(X/\mathbf{Q}_p))$.
Spoken: geometrically, over $\overline{\mathbf{F}}_p$, write $T_{\mathrm{ev}} = \ker( \operatorname{Frob}_p^m - p^m \cdot \mathrm{id}) = \sum_i \ker \Phi_i(\operatorname{Frob}_p / p)$ for the eventual Tate space, the $\Phi_i$ being the cyclotomic factors of $P_2(pT)$.
Spoken: Then, with $K' = \operatorname{Frac} W(\mathbf{F}_{p^m})$ a field over which all the classes are defined, $\operatorname{Pic}(\overline{X}_p) \otimes_{\mathbf{Z}} K' = T_{\mathrm{ev}} \otimes_{\mathbf{Q}_p} K'$, in particular $\rho(\overline{X}_p) = \dim_{\mathbf{Q}_p} T_{\mathrm{ev}}$.
Spoken: The eigenvalues $\zeta p$ have $\zeta \notin \mathbf{Q}_p$ in general, which is why the kernels are those of $\mathbf{Q}$-irreducible cyclotomic polynomials in $\operatorname{Frob}_p/p$.
Spoken: The extension of scalars is not cosmetic: geometric divisor classes need not be defined over $\mathbf{Q}_p$, so the identification is an equality of $K'$-spaces and only the dimension count survives over $\mathbf{Q}_p$.
Spoken: The left-hand factor of the Berthelot-Ogus-Raynaud intersection is now a kernel, or a sum of kernels, of a matrix you can write down.
Spoken: Unbarred is the group over $\mathbf{F}_p$; the examples need the barred one.
TRANSCRIBED FROM: frobenious-dist/nyc-jnts.tex:1245-1264 (the block at 1249-1251)
The obstruction map [C-Sertöz]
Compute a $p$-adic approximation of the obstruction map
$\pi : \operatorname{Pic}(X_{\mathbf{F}_p}) \subset H^2_{\mathrm{crys}}(X/\mathbf{Z}_p) \longrightarrow H^2_{\mathrm{crys}}(X/\mathbf{Z}_p) / F^1 H^2_{\mathrm{crys}}(X/\mathbf{Z}_p)$
If $\pi(C) \neq 0$, then $C \notin \operatorname{Pic}(X)$. (analogous to $\operatorname{Pic}(X_{\mathbf{C}}) = H^{1,1}(X_{\mathbf{C}}) \cap H^2(X, \mathbf{Z})$)
compute a $p$-adic approximation of $\operatorname{Frob}_p$
compute an approximation of $\operatorname{Pic}(X_{\mathbf{F}_p})_{\mathbf{Q}_p} = \ker( \operatorname{Frob}_p - p \cdot \operatorname{id} \mid H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(X/\mathbf{Q}_p))$
compute an approximation of $\pi_{\mathbf{Q}_p} : \operatorname{Pic}(X_{\mathbf{F}_p})_{\mathbf{Q}_p} \rightarrow H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(X/\mathbf{Q}_p) / F^1 H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(X/\mathbf{Q}_p)$
$\dim \operatorname{Pic}(X) \leq \dim_{\mathbf{Q}_p} \ker \pi_{\mathbf{Q}_p}$
By picking a basis that respects the Hodge filtration, the map $H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(X/\mathbf{Q}_p) \rightarrow H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(X/\mathbf{Q}_p)/F^1_{\mathbf{Q}_p}$ is a coordinate projection.
SOURCE: V:L500-516, O:L1253-1264
What it does. This is the sentence the lecture is built around. Everything before it is setup and everything after is evidence.
The stronger bound is Costa-Sertoz, sections 2.4 and 4.1.9, https://arxiv.org/html/2003.11037v3. Say the basic projection bound is at most one dimension per eigenspace for a K3, so it cannot by itself account for the six-dimensional improvement on slide 14; that improvement comes from the per-factor, iterated version.
The per-factor sentence is the one slide 14 leans on: without it, "treating each factor separately" there arrives undescribed.
Spoken: Both sides are in hand, so intersect them by projecting.
Spoken: Scalars extended to $W(\mathbf{F}_{p^k}) \otimes \mathbf{Q}_p$, the field over which the geometric classes of slide 8 are defined; over $\mathbf{Z}_p$ alone the inclusion on the left is not available.
Spoken: If $\pi(C) \neq 0$ then $C \notin \operatorname{Pic}(X)$: the class does not lift. Two bounds, of different sizes.
Spoken: Basic: the rank of $\pi$ on a single eigenspace, which for a K3 is at most 1, since $H^2/F^1$ is one-dimensional.
Spoken: Stronger: work with the rational Frobenius-invariant subspaces and iterate the obstruction map. Only the second gives the multi-dimensional drops below.
Spoken: The obstruction is applied to each Frobenius-stable factor separately, one invariant subspace at a time.
TRANSCRIBED FROM: frobenious-dist/vantage.tex:500-516, with the closing sentence from frobenious-dist/nyc-jnts.tex:1263
What you actually compute
Frobenius is not known exactly.
It is computed modulo $p^N$, for a chosen precision $N$, by point counting and $p$-adic cohomology.
The machinery is Kedlaya-style, and not this course's subject.
What matters here is the shape of the output: an approximation whose error you control.
NEW SLIDE: newly written, not reused from an existing talk.
What it does. The boulders say to indicate how the inputs are obtained without teaching the engines. This is that slide, and it also sets up the next one.
Spoken: It is computed modulo $p^N$ for a chosen precision $N$, by point counting and $p$-adic cohomology; the machinery is Kedlaya-style and is not this course's subject.
TRANSCRIBED FROM: no source, restyled
Why finite precision still proves something
An approximate Frobenius gives an approximate eigenspace.
But $\pi(C) \neq 0$ is an open condition.
Establishing it to finite precision establishes it.
Every dimension the method removes is removed rigorously: a genuine upper bound at any $N$.
Raising $N$ can only remove more. It never puts a dimension back.
NEW SLIDE: newly written, not reused from an existing talk.
What it does. Converts the method from evidence into proof in the room's mind. Without it the examples read as experiments.
Spoken: An approximate Frobenius gives an approximate eigenspace, so one might expect only heuristic conclusions.
Spoken: The asymmetry saves it: $\pi(C) \neq 0$ is an open condition. Establishing it to finite precision establishes it, full stop.
Spoken: So every dimension the method removes is removed rigorously, and the result is a genuine upper bound at any $N$.
TRANSCRIBED FROM: no source, restyled
Abelian surface
$A = \operatorname{Jac}(y^2 = 4x^5 - 36x^4 + 56x^3 - 76x^2 + 44x - 23)$
$\begin{aligned} \operatorname{Frob}|_{H^1_{\mathrm{dR}}(A/\mathbf{Q}_p)} \equiv{}& \begin{pmatrix} 31 \cdot 482 & 31 \cdot 284 & 16241 & 3075 \\ 31 \cdot 386 & 31 \cdot 886 & 2644 & 12126 \\ 31 \cdot 284 & 31 \cdot 659 & 6336 & 9750 \\ 31 \cdot 194 & 31 \cdot 876 & 27408 & 10841 \end{pmatrix} \pmod{31^3}, \\ L(t) ={}& \det(1 - t\operatorname{Frob} \mid H^1) = 1 - 3t + 14t^2 - 93t^3 + 961t^4. \end{aligned}$
From this we deduce $\operatorname{Frob}|_{H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(A/\mathbf{Q}_p)}$ and
$\det(1 - t\,31^{-1}\operatorname{Frob} \mid H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(A/\mathbf{Q}_p)) = (t-1)^2(31t^4 + 48t^3 + 43t^2 + 48t + 31)/31$
Thus, $\rho\bigl(A_{\mathbf{F}_p^{\mathrm{al}}}\bigr) = 2$.
Since the basis of $H^1$ respects the Hodge filtration, the induced basis in $H^2$ will also respect it.
SOURCE: O:L1267-1290
What it does. The only example whose whole computation fits on a slide, because an abelian surface has an H^1 to work from. A K3 would need the 22-by-22 matrix on H^2, which is why the K3 examples are transcripts.
NOTATION: L(t) is the H^1 characteristic polynomial, kept because the source uses it; the H^2 polynomial is still P_2(T).
PANEL FLAG: the panel recomputed this example and got #C(F_31) = 42 and L(t) = 1 + 10t + 68t^2 + 310t^3 + 961t^4 for this curve, disagreeing with the L(t) shown (both are valid Weil polynomials for p = 31). The slide faithfully reproduces nyc-jnts.tex:1267-1290, which displays this same curve, this same L(t), this same Frobenius matrix and this same H^2 determinant. So if the discrepancy is real, either the curve or the L-polynomial in the original deck came from a different example. Nothing has been changed and nothing guessed; it awaits the author.
Spoken: at $p = 31$ and $N = 3$.
Spoken: whence $\rho(A_{\mathbf{F}_{31}^{\mathrm{al}}}) = 2$.
TRANSCRIBED FROM: frobenious-dist/nyc-jnts.tex:1267-1290
Abelian surface, continued
$A = \operatorname{Jac}(y^2 = 4x^5 - 36x^4 + 56x^3 - 76x^2 + 44x - 23)$
$\det(1 - t\,31^{-1}\operatorname{Frob} \mid H^2_{\mathrm{dR}}(A/\mathbf{Q}_p)) = (t-1)^2(31t^4 + 48t^3 + 43t^2 + 48t + 31)/31$
Thus, $\rho\bigl(A_{\mathbf{F}_p^{\mathrm{al}}}\bigr) = 2$.
Compute 2 eigenvectors
$\begin{aligned} v_1 \equiv{}& \left(356,\,37,\,831,\,0,\,295,\,31\right) \pmod{31^2} \\ v_2 \equiv{}& \left(4,\,957,\,3,\,1,\,0,\,0\right) \pmod{31^2}. \end{aligned}$
The last coordinate of the vectors above gives the projection to $H^2/F^1$. Therefore, $v_1 \notin F^1$ and the corresponding algebraic cycle cannot lift to $\mathbf{Q}_p$.
Thus, we improved $\operatorname{rank} \operatorname{NS}(A_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) \leq 2$ to $\operatorname{rank} \operatorname{NS}(A_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) \leq 1$, and therefore $\operatorname{End}(A_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) = \mathbf{Z}$.
van Luijk's method would have succeeded in this example by using a second prime.
SOURCE: O:L1291-1315
What it does. The payoff. The room watches a dimension get removed by hand, once, and then trusts the transcripts.
Spoken: The basis of $H^1$ respects the filtration, so the induced basis of $H^2$ does too. Compute the eigenvectors; one of them fails to lie in $F^1$.
Spoken: The bound drops from 2 to 1, so the geometric Neron-Severi rank is 1.
Spoken: One more step, the standard one: $NS(A)_{\mathbf{Q}}$ is the set of Rosati-fixed elements of $\operatorname{End}(A)_{\mathbf{Q}}$, so a Rosati-fixed part of dimension 1 leaves only $\mathbf{Q}$, and the classification of endomorphism algebras of abelian surfaces then forces $\operatorname{End}(A_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) = \mathbf{Z}$.
Spoken: This is crystalline_obstruction in Sage; the K3 runs below are the same call.
TRANSCRIBED FROM: frobenious-dist/nyc-jnts.tex:1291-1315
K3 surface
$X := Z(y^4 - x^3 z + y z^3 + z w^3 + w^4) \subset \mathbf{P}^3_{\mathbf{C}}$
sage: crystalline_obstruction(f, p=89, precision=3)
(4,
{'rank T(X_Fpbar)': 10,
'factors': [(t - 1, 1), (t + 1, 1), (t - 1, 4), (t^4 + 1, 1)],
'dim Ti': [1, 1, 4, 4],
'dim Li': [1, 0, 3, 0]},
'precision': 3, 'p': 89})
$\rho(X_{\mathbf{F}_{89}^{\mathrm{al}}}) = 10$
$\operatorname{Pic}(X_{\mathbf{F}_{89}^{\mathrm{al}}})$ decomposes as $P_{\zeta_1} \oplus P_{\zeta_2} \oplus P_{\zeta_8}$
By studying each factor independently, we show $\rho(X_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) \leq 4$
In fact, $\rho(X_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) = 4$ as there are four lines in $z = 0$.
previous approaches would not have used $p = 89$
SOURCE: O:L1377-1401
The closing line is the source slide's own, and it reaches back to Lecture 1.
"Each factor separately" is the refinement stated on slide 9; do not introduce it for the first time here.
At finite precision the printed dim L_i entries are themselves only upper bounds for that dimension; that is enough, since the conclusion is an upper bound.
Spoken: at $p = 89$, precision 3.
Spoken: The transcript reports $\rho(\overline{X}_{89}) = 10$, from the cyclotomic factors $(t-1)$, $(t+1)$, $(t-1)^4$, $(t^4+1)$ of $p^{-22}P_2(pT)$: degrees $1 + 1 + 4 + 4 = 10$.
Spoken: The distinct cyclotomic primary pieces have dimensions 5, 1 and 4: the $(t-1)$ and $(t-1)^4$ entries are the polarization and the primitive $+1$-eigenspace, not two separate eigenspaces.
Spoken: $T_i$ is the $i$-th such Frobenius-stable piece; $L_i \subseteq T_i$ is the largest Frobenius-stable subspace of $T_i$ contained in $F^1$, equivalently $\bigcap_j \operatorname{Frob}_p^{-j}(\ker \pi|_{T_i})$, so $\dim L_i$ bounds how much of that piece can lift.
Spoken: The transcript prints $\dim T_i$ against $\dim L_i$, factor by factor.
Spoken: Applying the obstruction to each factor separately gives $\sum_i \dim L_i = 4$, so $\rho(X_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) \leq 4$, and four lines in $z = 0$ give equality.
TRANSCRIBED FROM: frobenious-dist/nyc-jnts.tex:1377-1401
Quartic surface
$X = Z(y^4 - x^3 z + y z^3 + z w^3 + w^4) \subset \mathbf{P}^3_{\mathbf{C}}$
sage: crystalline_obstruction(f, p=31, precision=5)
(4,
{'rank T(X_Fpbar)': 4,
'factors': [(t - 1, 1), (t - 1, 1), (t + 1, 2)],
'dim Ti': [1, 1, 2],
'dim Li': [1, 1, 2]},
'precision': 5, 'p': 31})
$\rho(X_{\mathbf{F}_{31}^{\mathrm{al}}}) = 4$
no cycle obstruction found while working $\mathbf{Z}/(p)^5$
$\rho(X_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) \leq 4$, with some extra confidence that the equality might hold.
by searching for lines Elsenhans-Jahnel's method would have succeeded in this example
SOURCE: O:L1402-1423
What it does. The honest middle case, and the reason the method is stated per-prime. A prime that says nothing is not a prime that says no.
Spoken: The same surface at $p = 31$.
Spoken: No obstruction is found.
Spoken: The bound is $\rho \leq 4$ and stays there.
TRANSCRIBED FROM: frobenious-dist/nyc-jnts.tex:1402-1423
Quintic surface
$X := Z(9 x y^{4} + 3 x^{4} z + 9 y^{2} z^{3} + z^{5} + 5 w^{5}) \subset \mathbf{P}^3$
sage: crystalline_obstruction(f, p=23, precision=6)
(1, {'rank T(X_Fpbar)': 5,
'factors': [(t - 1, 1), (t - 1, 1), (t + 1, 1), (t^2 + 1, 1)],
'dim Ti': [1, 1, 1, 2],
'dim Li': [1, 0, 0, 0],
'precision': 6, 'p': 23})
sage: crystalline_obstruction(f, p=29, precision=20)
(3, {'rank T(X_Fpbar)': 5,
'factors': [(t - 1, 1), (t - 1, 2), (t + 1, 2)],
'dim Ti': [1, 2, 2],
'dim Li': [1, 1, 1]})
'precision': 20, 'p': 29})
$\rho(X_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) = 1$
However, we cannot deduce this from $p = 29$, not even with infinite precision.
The surface has $CM$ by $\mathbf{Q}(\zeta_5)$
SOURCE: O:L1428-1458
Say the p_g = 4 line out loud, or the room spends the slide wondering what a quintic is doing in a K3 course.
What it does. Categorically stronger than slide 15. Not "we did not look hard enough" but "looking harder cannot help at this prime". This is the slide that makes the closing question a question rather than a to-do.
Source pdfnote: Computing the zeta function or the Frobenius approximation for a prime takes several hours, thus trying to use 2 primes.
Source pdfnote: the dimension of the codomain is now 4, so now there is hope to obstruct more cycles.
Spoken: A quintic with complex multiplication by $\mathbf{Q}(\zeta_5)$, at $p = 23$ and $p = 29$.
Spoken: A smooth quintic in $\mathbf{P}^3$ has $p_g = 4$ and is not a K3.
Spoken: The method is not K3-specific: it applies to smooth surfaces in $\mathbf{P}^3$ generally, which is why it can be run here.
Spoken: At 29 the method fails to certify $\rho = 1$ even at infinite precision ; what it does reach, at sufficiently high precision, is $\rho \leq 3$, down from the reduction bound 5, and no further precision can improve that bound.
TRANSCRIBED FROM: frobenious-dist/nyc-jnts.tex:1428-1458
What the three examples say
Three outcomes, and they are different in kind:
at $p = 89$ the obstruction improves 10 to 4, and 4 is sharp;
at $p = 31$ the reduction bound is already the sharp value 4, so there is nothing left to remove;
at $p = 29$ on the quintic the obstruction fires, improving 5 to 3, but 3 is not sharp and no precision brings it to 1.
Only the third is a statement about the method rather than about an attempt.
So the open question is not whether some prime works, but whether one can prove that some prime works.
NEW SLIDE: newly written, not reused from an existing talk.
What it does. Stops the three examples reading as a list. Without it the room takes the quintic as discouragement rather than as the precise shape of what is unknown.
Spoken: The middle case is not an inconclusive attempt: the bound there was sharp before the obstruction was asked anything.
TRANSCRIBED FROM: no source, restyled
What is being computed, exactly
Can we combine both approaches?
At the moment we are only computing an approximation of $\operatorname{Pic}(X)_{\mathbf{Q}_p}$.
To combine several primes we need at least $\operatorname{Pic}(X_{\mathbf{F}_p})_{\mathbf{Q}}$, to be able to use
$\operatorname{Pic}(X)_{\mathbf{Q}} = \operatorname{Pic}(X_{\mathbf{F}_p})_{\mathbf{Q}} \cap F^1_{\mathbf{Q}_p}$
in its full strength.
At the moment we are only using
$\operatorname{Pic}(X)_{\mathbf{Q}_p} \subset \operatorname{Pic}(X_{\mathbf{F}_p})_{\mathbf{Q}_p} \cap F^1_{\mathbf{Q}_p}$
Raising $N$ does not touch the missing rational structure.
SOURCE: O:L1462-1480, second bullet
What it does. The distinction between rational classes and their p-adic span, which your plan asks to be kept visible. It is also why this method and Lecture 1's cannot simply be added together.
Concretely: y and y + p^N x agree mod p^N, and neither of their kernels contains the other, which is why the certified output is a dimension bound rather than a containment for the approximate kernel.
EDITORIAL: the closing claim line "Raising N does not touch the missing rational structure." is deck-written, not on the frame.
Spoken: What the computation returns is not $\operatorname{Pic}(X)_{\mathbf{Q}_p}$.
Spoken: Write $L$ for the largest Frobenius-stable subspace of $T_{\mathrm{ev}}$ contained in $F^1_{\mathbf{Q}_p}$, the slide-14 object taken over all pieces at once.
Spoken: The exact $L$ is a containing space, $\operatorname{Pic}(X)_{\mathbf{Q}_p} \subseteq L \subseteq T_{\mathrm{ev}} \cap F^1_{\mathbf{Q}_p},$ with $T_{\mathrm{ev}}$ the eventual Tate space of slide 8, which is where the $\mathbf{Q}_p$-statement lives; the geometric Picard group itself only appears after extending scalars.
Spoken: and what is computed is an approximation to it: the exact kernel of an approximate matrix need not contain the true kernel nor lie in the filtration.
Spoken: What the computation certifies is a bound on $\dim L$, not those containments for the approximate kernel.
Spoken: Two things separate it from the answer, and only one is precision.
Spoken: Finite-precision error shrinks as $N$ grows.
Spoken: The other does not: even at infinite precision $L$ can stay strictly larger than the characteristic-zero Picard span, because the construction supplies no rational structure.
Spoken: Comparing lattices across primes needs $\operatorname{Pic}(\overline{X}_p)_{\mathbf{Q}}$ inside each, which separate $\mathbf{Q}_p$-spaces do not give.
TRANSCRIBED FROM: frobenious-dist/nyc-jnts.tex:1462-1480 (second item)
Theoretical example
$X : w^2 = (-y^2/8 + yz - z^2)(7x^2/8 + 5xz + 7z^2)(2x^2 + 3xy + y^2)$
$X$ is the minimal resolution of this double cover of $\mathbf{P}^2$; the sextic is a product of three conics, singular at 15 points.
Known sublattice: the polarization and the 15 exceptional curves , so $\rho \geq 16$.
At $p = 83$ it has $\chi_1 = (t-1)^{10}(t+1)^6$, and the reduction bound leaves $\rho = 16, 17$ or $18$.
The two extra classes span the single $\mathbf{Q}$-irreducible piece $t^2 + 1$, so 17 is out: $\rho = 16$ or $18$. In fact $\rho(X_{\mathbf{Q}^{\mathrm{al}}}) = 16$, and $X$ has RM by $\mathbf{Q}(\sqrt{2})$.
This is the wall from Lecture 1: RM by a field of degree 2 with $(22 - 16)/2 = 3$ odd, so every good prime overshoots.
Over $\mathbf{Q}$ the two extra classes at $83$ are Galois conjugate: obstruct one and both go, so the bound would be $16$. Over $\mathbf{Q}(\sqrt{2})$, where the RM is defined, they are not, and one always survives: $17$ at best.
"Given a good enough approximation to $\operatorname{Frob}_p$ we will obstruct 2 extra cycles. However, we don't yet know how to compute such approximation!"
NEW SLIDE: newly written, not reused from an existing talk.
SOURCE: saard PDF p.35-37
What it does. One concrete surface carries both lectures: Lecture 1 says why every prime overshoots here, Lecture 2 says why the obstruction cannot fix it, and the slide says exactly what is missing. This is the recruitment slide, and it is already written.
The quoted line is the source slide's own closing sentence and is reproduced word for word.
Why the wall is over Q(sqrt 2) and not over Q: at 83 the two extra classes span the block t^2 + 1, one Galois orbit of two conjugate Frobenius eigenlines; the obstruction is Galois-equivariant, so if one eigenvector fails to lift so does its conjugate, and the exact bound at 83 is 16 (Costa-Sertoz, Example 5.9). Over Q(sqrt 2) the residue field at 83 is F_{83^2}, Frobenius is squared and acts as -1 on the block, so the obstruction kernel is a Frobenius-stable line and survives: 17. At every good place where the RM is defined, Frobenius commutes with the RM and one RM eigenline is kept, so at least 17. What is missing over Q is the Frobenius matrix on the resolution.
Spoken: Let $X$ be the minimal resolution of this double cover of $\mathbf{P}^2$: the sextic is a product of three conics, so the cover is singular at the 15 points where its six branch lines meet, and those points are not divisor classes.
Spoken: The known sublattice is the polarization together with the 15 exceptional curves above those 15 singular points , giving $\rho \geq 16$.
Spoken: At $p = 83$ that sublattice has $\chi_1 = (t-1)^{10}(t+1)^6$, the factor of $p^{-22}P_2(pT)$ it accounts for, and the reduction bound leaves $\rho = 16, 17$ or $18$ a priori.
Spoken: The two extra classes at 83 span the single $\mathbf{Q}$-irreducible piece $t^2 + 1$, which cannot supply exactly one extra rational class, so they come together or not at all: 17 is out and $\rho = 16$ or $18$.
Spoken: This is exactly the wall from Lecture 1. RM by a field of degree 2 with $(22 - 16)/2 = 3$ odd puts it in the second of the two cases where every good prime overshoots.
TRANSCRIBED FROM: no source, restyled
The question
Is there a prime for which the bound will be tight?
In general, no.
For example, take a K3 surface $X$ with real multiplication, defined over a number field where all the algebraic cycles in $X$ and $X \times X$ are defined.
However, we are hopeful for K3 surfaces and abelian 3folds defined over $\mathbf{Q}$.
Not a claim that the method always works, and not a claim that it cannot be made to.
SOURCE: O:L1462-1480
What it does. Ends the lecture, and the break falls here.
PANEL FLAG: the panel holds the unrestricted question to be settled, since unconditional algorithms to compute the geometric Neron-Severi group of a K3 surface over a number field exist (Poonen-Testa-van Luijk, Theorem 8.38, https://math.mit.edu/~poonen/papers/compute_ns.pdf). As the panel reads it, the question needs scoping to this particular obstruction method and to a stated base field, and the preceding real-multiplication example is not a failure of the obstruction method. The wording is the author's own, so it is unchanged pending the author's decision.
EDITORIAL: the deck's blockquote wording is not in the source frame, so the frame's own question is now on the slide; the frame's question is already scoped to "a prime for which the bound will be tight", which is the scoping the panel asked for. The third visible line, "Not a claim that the method always works, and not a claim that it cannot be made to.", is likewise deck-written, not on the frame.
Spoken: Is there a way to get a sharp upper bound on the Picard number of a K3 surface?
Spoken: Open, with the RM case above as the known obstacle. Hopeful over $\mathbf{Q}$.
TRANSCRIBED FROM: frobenious-dist/nyc-jnts.tex:1462-1480 (first item)